Running thread for the Busch race at Memphis, the fourth race from the end of the season. At this point, Truex has a 120 point lead over Clint Bowyer, and only the top four drivers are still mathematically alive for the title.
Bowyer started deep in the field, overcoming a spin during qualifying, and raced to the lead midway through the race. Bowyer ended up winning, leading the most laps, while Truex finished 3rd. Although Truex also led, the finish order was enough to cut Truex's lead from 120 to 100 with 3 races to go. Next up is Texas after a week off, then Phoenix and Homestead. At this point last season, Truex was up some 300 points on current Nextel cup rookie Kyle Busch.
Long story short, with 3 races to go, the max number points per race is 190 for a win leading the most laps. Over 3 races, that is 570 max points. The minimum points for last place (43rd position) is 34 points, or 102 points. Bowyer being down 100 is guaranteed at least 102 points if he starts all three races, but so is Truex. So the max that matters over three races is 468, and Bowyer is already 100 behind, so Truex can clinch by gaining 368 points over Bowyer. Averaged over three races, this is 123 points per race net, or such that scoring 157 points per race, or a 4th place finish without leading or 5th with leading a lap, and Truex wins no matter what Bowyer does.
The third and fourth place drivers, Carl Edwards and Reed Sorensen, are 371 and 429 points behind respectively. This means that Truex need only gain 97 and 39 points respectively to eliminate those two drivers from contention, something that can happen in the next race.
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