Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Dale Jr, Truex in early holes

Last Sunday's blown motors for DEI drivers Martin Truex Jr and Dale Earnhardt Jr leave them in a points hole, with finishes of 42 and 40, respectively, on top of 30s-level finishes due to a late crash at Daytona. Both had strong machines before their engines blew, so there was hope for DEI to break its recent struggles at California.

Next up is Las Vegas - which is a wild card this year. Since the race there last March, the track was completely dug-up, and rebuilt with much higher banking, new pit road and new facilities. There have been NASCAR sanctioned tests at the track but it will still be a crapshoot.

Dale Jr is 40th in the standings, already 225 points behind the leader, Mark Martin. He lost 10 spots at California. Truex is 38th, having lost 11 spots at California, 217 points back of the lead. If there is any consolation, the current 12th place driver (Last transfer spot for the Chase this year) is 103 back of the leader, so the two of them are 122 and 114 points behind 12th, respectively.

Magic number now 30

Ottawa beat Carolina tonight, reducing the Hurricanes max number of points possible to 103. Montreal, New York Rangers & Boston remain at max 104. Subtracting the Pens current point total, 75, from 104 yields 29, and add one to assure all tiebreakers, leaves a magic number of 30. The Pens have 20 more games, or 40 possible points, left on the table. A record of 15-5 will clinch them a playoff spot no matter what the 9th place team does.

As the ninth place max points becomes less, due to teams failing to gain max points, the magic number is reduced accordingly. Likewise, when the Pens get points, the magic number decreases by that much as well.

Thoughts on the Pens' Trade-day moves

The Pens made a few moves yesterday, highlighted by the acquisition of LW Gary Roberts from the Florida Panthers and F Georges Laraque from the Phoenix Coyotes.

For Roberts, the Pens gave up their 2nd round pick in 2001, Defenseman Noah Welch. Welch was promising in his first callup in 2004, recording 4 points in 5 games, but disappointed in his development since then. He was expected to be an offensive defenseman, but inconsistency kept him on the bus between the NHL and the WBS Penguins of the AHL. He was on the AHL roster when traded.

I don't know how I feel about giving up on Welch after only 27 NHL games played, but it really doesn't matter what I think. I do see positives in his game, observed in recent seasons when he was with Toronto and Carolina and Florida. He gave the Pens fits, and his game is something the Pens didn't have previously. For an older comparison, he seems to have a lot of Kevin Stevens in him, but he seems to have retained his skills and speed better than most other players his age.

As for Laraque, we gave up AHLer Daniel Carcillo and a 2008 third round pick. For the presence he will bring, he came very cheap. He had 5 goals and 17 assists on the season, more than Dominic Moore, who was sent to Minnesota for a 2007 third round pick, and ought to fit well with Jarkko Ruutu.

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Pens strong in 1-0 loss to Devils

The Pens first game post-trade deadline saw a strong defensive performance, allowing but a single powerplay goal to the Devils. Unfortunately for Fleury and the Pens, Martin Brodeur pitched his 12th shutout of the season, including stopping a flurry of chances on a late Pens PP.

None of the new acquisitions were available to play; Gary Roberts was in the building, and held a first intermission press conference. The Pens overall outplayed the Devils, but could not get the puck past Brodeur. The strong play was in stark contrast to recent games (5-1 and 6-5 losses to the Lightning and Islanders, and a series of 4+ goals allowed wins before that), but it left the Pens nothing to show for it in the standings. They remain at 75 points with 62 games played, 33-20-4-5, now in the 5th seed, having been passed by Ottawa.

The Magic Number is 31 on losses by Toronto, Carolina and Montreal tonight.

Sunday, February 25, 2007

Pens blow one of their games-in-hand

The Penguins blew a chance at making up ground on the Eastern conference today, falling 5-1 at Tampa. The loan Pens goal was from Gonchar, assisted by Malkin and Crosby on a 5-on-3 PP, but at the time it was scored in the 2nd, the Pens had been down 3-0.

Although the game was poorly officiated, that was not why the Pens lost. The Pens' effort was just not there, and Tampa came out like a team possessed. Thibault got the start in net for the Pens, but was pulled in favor of Fleury after the 3rd goal - though the way the Pens played in front of them, I doubt it would have made much difference. The Pens had some good chances, but the Tampa goalie was up to the task.

The Pens had beaten Florida in overtime on Thursday night, and for once their Florida trip were not on back to back nights. The Pens retain the 5th seed currently in the East, but failed to gain ground on 9th place, and their magic number to clinch a playoff spot remains 33 points. (They have 42 possible points to gain, so they control their own destiny) The max number of points the Pens can gain now are 117, still 3rd most in the east, while the 9th place max points is 107 (Carolina) 107-75 = 32 + 1 = 33.

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Caps doing Pens a favor

The Washington Capitals are doing the Pens a favor in the Atlantic Division race, beating up on Martin Brodeur and the New Jersey Devils 4-2 in New Jersey. The Pens are 7 points back with 2 games in hand and three games head-to-head remaining.

Mikey gets bounced by his own cars

Michael Waltrip, already mired in 61st in owner points at -27 thanks his 100 point penalty at Daytona, failed to make the Auto Club 500 in California tomorrow, being bounced out by his other two Michael Waltrip Racing Entries, the #00 of David Reutimann and the #44 UPS of Dale Jarrett. Reutimann was the last car to get in on time of the go-or-go-homers, bumping the #55 NAPA car of Waltrip, and Jarrett was too slow on speed, and had to fall back on a past-champion's provisional for the 2nd straight week.

The good news for Waltrip? His being the fastest that failed to qualify will give him +4 owner points after California, but he will still be -27 in Driver points. It is a shame to see him struggle, which this year and last have been ever since he left DEI at the end of 2005. He is a great personality, but much like Kenny Wallace, has struggled in anything but the top equipment. (Both had their best finishes in DEI Equipment - Wallace finshed 2nd while subbing for Steve Park at Rockingham in late 2001, having started on the pole and led 101 laps; and Waltrip won 4 times for DEI, all on plate tracks including two Daytona 500s)

Thursday, February 22, 2007

Thoughts as the trade deadline approaches

There are five days left until the NHL trade deadline for the 2006-2007 season, with all deals having to be done by 3pm on Tuesday, February 27, 2007.

So far, the only major shoe to drop was the Flyers moving F Peter Forsberg to Nashville.

Speculation is rampant over which teams will be sellers and which will be buyers. The tight playoff races in the East leave more uncertainty over which teams are which. About the only thing certain is the Philadelphia Flyers are out of it - they have 40 points with 22 games remaining, and could only secure 84 points if they won out. Their elimination number is 18 - either points failed to be gained, or points gained by the 8th place team.
Washington is in a rough spot at 5 games under .500 with 21 games left, having 56 points, but they do have a max possible of98, so at least they have a mathematical chance at that 95 points, even if improbable, as they have lost 5 straight and are 2-5-3 in their last 10. Florida is at 58, Boston 62 and the Rangers 63. At 66 in 9th and 10th are Toronto and the Islanders, with Carolina holding down the 8th spot with 67 points. The race is so tight that 4th seed right now (Pittsburgh & Ottawa) have 73 points, only 7 up on 9th, even though they have more points than the SE division leader. Pittsburgh is 7 points back of NJ for the divison lead, likely an unreachable goal, but the playoffs are in their own hands.

Over in the west, the LA Kings are 20 points out of 8th with 21 to go, Columbus 18 out with 22 to go, and Chicago and Phoenix are 17 out each with 22 to go. Very unlikely for them to make up that gap. In 11th-9th are St Louis (9 back with 21 to go) and Edmonton/Colorado (8 back each with 22 to go). Their gaps are more reasonable, but it will be tough for them.

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Inexcuseable

Now more than a day later, the NHL still has not corrected the final stat sheet from Yesterday's 6-5 loss at the Islanders. While the on-ice player numbers have finally been added to the game summary, the Event summary shows the plus/minus without the Pens 5th goal taken into account, as the Game summary had shown "data pending" well into today, finally being shifted over past noon.

All of the major outlets for hockey stats, ESPN, tsn.ca, sportsnet.ca, Fox, HockeyDB, Canoe and others published their stats based on the errant score sheet from yesterday. Only the NHL has finally cared to correct their stats late this afternoon, as evidenced by Sidney Crosby showing as +14, where he was +15 going into the game yesterday. The other media have him as +13.

The sheer math of the game - on for 3 Even strength goals for, on for 4 even strength goals against equals -1, not -2. Yet the event summary still shows -2.

What an end to an unlikely streak. 14-0-2 had to end at some point, but the irony of the Isles snapping it on a weak goal with 26.8 seconds left, after Sidney Crosby had put on a clinic in the Isles end, only to have DiPietro make the key saves, where Fluery could not. The Pens are still 4th in the east, 73 points on the strentgh of 32-18-4-5 (W-L-OTL-SOL), but the race is so close that nothing is guaranteed. The Pens need to go back on a new streak to separate themselves from the pack, and can ill-afford to let any more of these games-in-had get away from them.